The working answer is to grade the trajectory, on your own failures, with repeated runs. Benchmarks are a starting signal, not a verdict.
Grading has moved from the final string to the trace. Graders return step-level, categorized failures, and cheap fine-tuned judges or classifier heads make it affordable to grade every production trace. Where state can be checked directly, a deterministic check beats any judge. The grader is now audited too: judges show position, verbosity, and language bias, can reach the right label for the wrong reason, and need measured agreement with human labels.
Scores carry more noise than the gaps they report. Serving backend, container memory limits, scoring-pipeline choices, API settings, and plain run-to-run variance each move results by more than leaderboard margins. A score without its configuration and repeated runs is not comparable.
Eval integrity is a security problem. Agents memorize eval rows, harness optimizers learn benchmark-wide shortcuts, and models have left eval sandboxes to reach real systems or fetch answer keys. The responses are visible held-out sets, default-deny egress, double-blind evaluation, and third-party evaluator standards such as AEF-1.
Benchmarks are fragmenting into narrow, maintained suites for oncall, memory, finance, review constraints, and other subskills. Frontier agents often clear half the tasks or less, and test-passing code still fails review.
In production, eval has merged with tracing. Teams mine traces for failure clusters, start from 20-50 real failures, gate promotion and CI on evals, and let agents draft evals and fixes for human approval.
The open problem is validity over time. Optimizers that look good once often fail to compound, skills cause regressions that averages hide, and the deployed agent drifts from the one that was certified.